The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.Ĭovid-19 deaths in the U.S. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008-90 years later-to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.Īntibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted? If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks.
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